Cars.com Analyst Forecasts March 2014 Sales, Evaluates Q1

Cars.com projects a SAAR of 15.8 million new-car sales in March, up 3.3 percent from March 2013 and up 3.0 percent over February. This would mark the highest March SAAR since 2007.

Jesse Toprak, chief analyst for Cars.com, projects retail units to account for 81.5 percent of this month’s total sales, up 3.2 percent from March 2013. New light-vehicle sales in the United States (including fleet) are expected to close out the month at 1,486,402 units, up 2.3 percent from this time last year and up 24.7 percent over the previous month.

“New vehicle sales are stuck in neutral so far this year,” said Toprak. “Q1 results are lower than we anticipated and therefore we are lowering our annual forecast to 16.1 million units. Despite the rather stagnant pace of sales, we should keep in mind that the fundamentals of the industry are still sound. Improving consumer demand and lending trends, as well as a remarkable lineup of new products, will continue to bring a healthy level of buyers into showrooms. However, we are certainly transitioning from a market that was in hyper-recovery mode to a mature market where double-digit gains will be increasingly difficult to attain.”

New Vehicle Sales, Q1 2014 vs. Q1 2013

Manufacturer

Q1 2014

Q1 2013

Change

Chrysler Group

 469,779

 429,387

9.4%

Ford

 573,509

 590,011

-2.8%

GM

 642,676

 664,963

-3.4%

Honda

 329,722

 337,651

-2.3%

Hyundai/Kia

 284,345

 291,262

-2.4%

Nissan

 340,514

 318,281

7.0%

Toyota

 516,545

 529,444

-2.4%

Volkswagen

 128,826

 142,663

-9.7%

Industry Total

 3,688,679

 3,687,533

0.0%

*Based on actual sales for January – February and forecast for March 2014

 

Unit Sales

Manufacturer

March 2014 Sales Forecast

YoY

MoM

Chrysler Group

186,014

8.2%

19.3%

Ford

240,762

3.4%

32.9%

GM

249,086

1.3%

12.1%

Honda

137,686

1.2%

37.1%

Hyundai/Kia

113,108

-3.7%

25.4%

Nissan

134,684

-2.2%

16.8%

Toyota

210,896

2.7%

32.4%

Volkswagen

50,421

-7.8%

21.6%

Industry Total

1,486,402

2.3%

24.7%

 

Market Share

Manufacturer

March 2014 Sales Forecast

Mar-13

Feb-14

Chrysler Group

12.5%

11.8%

13.1%

Ford

16.2%

16.0%

15.2%

GM

16.8%

16.9%

18.6%

Honda

9.3%

9.4%

8.4%

Hyundai/Kia

7.6%

8.1%

7.6%

Nissan

9.1%

9.5%

9.7%

Toyota

14.2%

14.1%

13.4%

Volkswagen

3.4%

3.8%

3.5%

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